When a Usage Drop Is Not Churn
A quiet week in the product is not always an exit signal. Separating seasonal lulls from cancellation intent keeps early-warning models honest.
Notes from churn signal work
Short pieces on labelling, false positives, and billing-aligned prediction windows—written from engagements with subscription product teams.
Labelling Soft Churn Honestly
Cancellation is clear. Soft churn—accounts that stop using but keep paying—needs a deliberate label, or models learn the wrong lesson.
Billing Cycles Shape Prediction Windows
A fourteen-day lookback that ignores renewal dates will misread annual plans and punish monthlies unfairly. Align windows with how people actually pay.